Showing posts with label Indian Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Indian Economy. Show all posts

Weekly Market Outlook 25th June 2011

SNAPSHOT
Indian stocks markets finally succeeded in salvaging a close in the positive territory, snapping the two week downtrend, as the enthralling close to 700 points rally in the last two trading session of the week for the Sensex helped it to overturn the massive losses incurred on the initial day of the week. The benchmark indices went on to re-capture the important psychological 5,450 and 18,200 levels and end the week with close to two percent gains amid encouraging global cues including a resolution over Greece debt trouble after it gained EU and IMF's approval of its latest five-year austerity plan and also after a decision by International Energy Agency to increase oil supplies. However, what followed in the last two sessions was healthy short covering rally as it seemed like investors keenly awaited for a catalyst to buy in India since they were of the belief that domestic markets have bottomed out and a lot of headwinds have been factored in. The BSE Sensex surged by 370.15 points or 2.07% to 18240.68 during the week ended June 24, 2011. The S&P CNX Nifty heaved by 104.85 points or 1.95% to 5471.25.

Food inflation numbers have ricocheted a week after showing some signs of moderation. According to the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for Food Articles group rose to 9.13 percent for the week-ended June 11, from 8.96 percent for the previous week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 107 points in May 2011, higher by 7% as compared to the base of 100 in 2010 and marginally up by 0.1% from the month of April. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the equity segment in the week with gross purchases of Rs 10400.60 crore and gross sales of 11526.70 crore, leading to a net outflow of Rs 1126.10 crore.



Weekly Market Outlook 18th June 2011

 SNAPSHOT

Indian equity indices extended the downtrend for the second consecutive week as investors at large continued to avoid long positions amid an increasingly vulnerable global as well as domestic setup. The hefty position squaring in last three session of the week proved very costly for the benchmark indices as it plunged over two percent on week on week basis. Foreign institutional investors (FII) restlessly attempted to plough back their hot money from the domestic markets because of confluence of worrying economic trends like accelerating inflation, declining foreign investment and slower growth and domestic investment, that policy inertia is only making worse. The BSE Sensex lost 398.01 points or 2.18% to 17870.53 during the week ended June 17, 2011. The BSE Mid-cap index plunged by 83.49 points or 1.21% to 6814.79 and the Small-cap index declined by 113.97 points or 1.38% to 8174.49.The S&P CNX Nifty slipped by 119.40 points or 2.18% to 5366.40. On the NSE, Bank Nifty lost 116.00 points or 1.08% to 10598.25, CNX IT sank 296.35 points or 4.45% to 6357.10 while CNX mid-cap declined 70.90 points or
0.89% to 7921.15 and CNX Nifty Junior dropped 227.20 points or 2.01% to 11051.25.

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, came much higher than the expectation at 9.06% (Provisional) for the month of May, 2011 (over May, 2010) as compared to 8.66% (Provisional) for the previous month and 10.48% during the corresponding month of the previous year. RBI furthered its aggressive stance against the rampant inflation and hiked repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points each to 7.50% and 6.50% respectively, in its mid-quarter policy review, which was in line with broader market expectations. 


     

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Weekly Market Outlook 4th June 2011


SNAPSHOT

Despite concluding three out of the five trading session of the week in the negative zone, Indian benchmarks still negotiated a close in the green territory with gains of well over half a percent on the week on week basis. In their journey, the key indices also went on to break the two week downtrend but failed to hold on to the psychological 5,600 and 18,650 levels. Investors went through a hectic week as an assortment of reports popped through the period keeping investors in a dilemma and frontline indices in a sticky situation. Bullishness seemed to be returning to the markets which were evident from the fact that the frontline indices showed some resilience and did not capitulate despite an assortment of disappointing economic reports. To start with it was the GDP data released on Tuesday which showed that nation's economy grew by 7.8% in the fourth quarter ending March this year, mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector. On Wednesday, the HSBC PMI figures based on a survey of around 500 companies were released which showed manufacturing activity in India in May slowed from a month earlier, yet output remained robust, reflecting the underlying strength in business conditions.

Furthermore an official data released by the Ministry of Commerce showed that India's six core industries grew by 5.2% in April 2011 as compared to 7.4% in the previous month and 7.5% in the same month of last year. Another data released by the commerce ministry showed that India's trade deficit in April narrowed to $8.98 billion from $11.03 billion in the same period a year earlier, however, the trade deficit rose (month on month) to $8.98 billion in April from $5.6 billion in March.

Read More: Equity Research Weekly Report

Equity Research Weekly Market Outlook Report By Mansukh 14th May 2011

Weekly Market
SNAPSHOT
Volume & Volitility IndexIndian benchmarks have gone through every possible circumstance in the passing week, to start with it was consolidation which prolonged for three back to back sessions, thereafter followed a day of turmoil for the frontline indices only to sign off the week with an enthusiastic short covering rally. Markets seem to have formed a firm base around the psychological 5,550 and 18,500 levels and are showing little signs of budging from those levels despite the amount of volatility seen in the markets. Investors at large remained hesitant to build on positions ahead of a slew of announcements like IIP data, weekly inflation figures, export data and the outcome of assembly polls. The initial three sessions remained characterized by volatility as traders utilized every small rise to trim down their positions and book profits. Nevertheless, despite the late correction, the frontline indices managed to accumulate around a percent gains in the session as domestic investors cheered the ruling UPA's win against the Left Parties in West Bengal, Kerala and Assam which may strengthen the image of the beleaguered government.

WEEK GONE BY
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex remained flat gaining 12.47 points or 0.07% to 18,531.28 for the week ended May 13, 2011. The BSE Mid-cap index shed 19.62 points or 0.29% to 6844.16 and the Small-cap index declined 7.15 points or 0.09% to 8,335.43. On the sectoral front, Capital goods lost 81.26 points or 0.64% to 12688.62, Bankex shed 80.59 points or 0.64% to 12590.17, Oil Gas declined by 46.36 points or 0.47% to 9768.78, IT lost 17.17 points or 0.28% to 6039.60 and Consumer Durables trimming 4.46 points or 0.07% to 3210.24, were the top losers on the BSE while FMCG up by 160.72 points or 4.41% to 3803.26, Realty advancing 82.58 points to 3.94% , Health Care (HC) surging 85.20 points or 1.40% to 6149.40, TECk climbing 18.21 points or 0.50% to 3629.23 and Metal rising 41.02 points or 0.27% to 15404.23 were the main gainers on the sectoral space. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 6.70 points or 0.12% to 5544.75. On the NSE, Bank Nifty lost 1.11% to 11020.95, CNX IT tumbled 0.26% to 6609.55 while CNX mid- cap gained 0.87% to 8034.90 and CNX Nifty Junior surged by 1.74% to 11,185.40. India's food inflation numbers have managed to extend the downtrend for second straight week and have moderated sharply to 7.70% for the week ended April 30 from 8.53% seen in the previous week. India's industrial growth-IIP has surprisingly jumped to 7.3% in March from 3.6% in February; however the Industrial production had grown 15.5% a year ago.

WEEK AHEAD

With the prices of crude oil and FII movements being the constant decisive factors for the markets, the investors in the coming week would be watching the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for the month of April for cues. As per the street expectation that India's wholesale price index likely rose 8.43 percent in April from a year earlier, slower than March's 8.98 percent increase due to base effect. Moreover, the postponed meeting of Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) for a decision on increasing the prices of diesel and domestic LPG will be taken only by May 17 or 18. Earlier EGoM was to meet on May 11, 2011 to consider hiking the diesel price by Rs 3-4 a litre and domestic LPG rates by Rs 20-25 a cylinder. Moreover trend line drawn adjoining two significant bottoms 5177 and 5232 , next level of support could be around 5430 level where possibility of bounce back couldn't be rule out. Hence clients are advised to remain cautious and use 'Buy on Dip' strategy on any substantial correction. On the flip side 5760-5770 (200 DMA) could be the key resistance zone where we might see some selling pressures. Any closing above this level with substantial volumes may boost the traders sentiment however 5945-5960 could be the next resistance zone. HAPPY TRADING......

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Nifty May Fut closed at a discount of 3.50 points

Derivative Strategy
F & O HIGHLIGHTS
Nifty May 2011 futures closed at 5,547.95, at a discount of 3.50 points over spot closing of 5,551.45, while Nifty June 2011 futures were at 5,562.75 at a premium of 11.30 points over spot closing. The near month May 2011 derivatives contract expires on Thursday, May 26, 2011. Nifty May futures saw addition of 0.21% or 0.05 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 27.80 mn units.
From the most active underlying, ICICI Bank May 2011 futures closed at a premium of 0.85 points at 1080.25 compared with spot closing of 1079.40. The number of contracts traded was 30,421.
SBI's May 2011 futures were at a premium of 3.80 point at 2651.70 compared with spot closing of 2647.90. The number of contracts traded was 21,492.
Tata Motors May 2011 futures were at a discount of 6.05 points at 1190.00 compared with spot closing of 1196.05. The number of contracts traded was 24,053.
Infosys May 2011 futures were at a discount of 17.00 points at 2865.45 compared with spot closing of 2882.45. The number of contracts traded was 11,278.
Axis Bank May 2011 futures were at a premium of 1.30 points at 1258.50 compared with spot closing of 1257.20. The number of contracts traded was 12,647.




Nifty Option Open Interest Distribution
Nifty May 5600 call shed 2.59 lakh shares in OI, down 4.68% and 5700 call added 4.05 lakh shares in OI, up 6.56%. On the put side nifty May 5500 put added 7.68 lakh shares in OI, up 18.74% and 5400 put added 6.18 lakh in OI, up 11.98%. The put-call ratio of stock option remains same at 0.34 while put-call ratio of index option increased from 0.79 to 0.80. On the whole the put call ratio was at 0.78.

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