Showing posts with label Equity Research Report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Equity Research Report. Show all posts

Equity Research Weekly Market Outlook Report By Mansukh 17-April-2011

Weekly Markets, Net  FII / DII Equity Activity (Rs Cr)
SNAPSHOT
For the week ended 15 April 2011, the BSE-Sensex declined by 64.63 points or 0.33% to 19,386.82. The BSE Mid-cap index increased 35.67 points or 0.50% to 7209.17 and the Small-cap index advanced 35.61 points or 0.41% to 8,808.16.On the sectoral front, FMCG zoomed 76.31 points or 2.10% to 3,713.73, Capital Goods (CG) soared 237.52 points or 1.73% to 13,979.29, Bankex surged 83.79 points or 2.80% to 13,382.96, Auto jumped 41.95 points or 0.45% to 9,439.08 and Healthcare (HC) up by 18.53 points or 0.31% to 6,142.02, were the top gainers on the BSE. On the flip side, IT was down by 299.41 points or 4.57% to 6,258.54, TECk was down by 119.75 points, or 3.09% to 3,751.26, Realty was down by 54 points or 2.19% to 2,410.15, Metal was down by 125.88 points or 0.76% to 16,381.24 and Consumer Durables (CD) down by 45.86 points or 0.71% to 6,381.24 were the top loser on the index. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 17.45 points or 0.30% to 5,825. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), CNX IT tumbled 4.56% to 6,842.15 while CNX mid-cap gained 0.36% to 8,317.85, Bank Nifty gained 0.53% to 11,735.65 and CNX Nifty Junior advanced 0.54% to 11606.20.
Volume & Volatility Index(Nifty- April 2011)
WEEK GONE BY
After minutely escaping from dipping into the red terrain in the previous week, the frontline indices slipped into the negative territory this time around, though marginally, as the triple 'I's viz. IIP numbers which merely grew at a pace of 3.6%, Inflation stood at 8.98% in March against 8.31% in Feb 2011 and Interest Rates, continued to haunt the domestic benchmarks for quite some time now, quadrupled with Infosys being the latest addition to the list. The psychological 5,800 and 19,400 levels proved to be a strong supports for the BSE' Sensex and the NSE Nifty as they consolidated around these levels for yet another week and looked in no mood to give away the substantial gains accumulated two weeks ago. The over 3% laceration in international crude oil prices which were trading around two and half year high levels, on the back of apprehensions of sluggish demand and slow economic recovery, too eased investor concerns. However the bourses, after another one-day break, took a nasty blow of around one and half a percent on the back of dreadful local leads. The flavor of a hectic earning season turned bitter right from the very start and the frontline indices took a blow after IT bellwether Infosys reported below expectation quarterly earnings and gave even lower than expected EPS guidance for FY12.

WEEK AHEAD
After having an imperative numbers of economic data last week the next big aspect that will be driving the Indian equity markets will be other corporate quarterly reports as earnings season shifts into high gear in the coming week. Companies like HDFC Bank, IFCI, IndusInd Bank, Magma Fincorp and Persistent Systems will be reporting their numbers in the week. Since there will be no major economic data up for release in the coming week the investor's will continue to watch the crude oil prices and Foreign fund inflows for cues since these two factors have been dictating the market's movements from quite some time now. Meanwhile, the Government of India in the coming week will take up 46 foreign investment (FDI) proposals. From the global markets investors will be eying lots of major economic data from the US, starting with Housing Starts data on April 19, followed by Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims and finally the Philadelphia Fed Survey data on Thursday, April 21, 2011. For the coming week 5720 followed by 5605 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face some resistance at 5950 and 6070 levels.HAPPY TRADING….

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INDEX - TECHNICAL STAND POINT - Equity Research Report By Mansukh

Nifty | Bank Nifty
















 


  



TREND LINE CONJECTURE:-

We have drawn trend line joining two significant bottom 3918 and 4786. According to trend line theory next levels of support could be around 5400. Any closing below this trend line may further dampens the current scenario and possibility of getting new lows near to 5200-5250 could be more justified. On the upper side any bounce back from 5400 may leap indices towards 5640-5650 where we might see some profit booking
Same in the Sensex , channel line drawn from the lows of 13219 and 15960 may provide crucial support around 17900-18000. Below this flood gates may open and we might see some drastic fall near to 16000 in a short span of time. On the flip side 20500 could be the key resistance level to watch.

MOVING AVERAGES AND THE CANDLE STICK PATTERN:-

The short term moving average is an indicator of the trend in the near future. The value for the short term moving average (20 DMA) is at 5470 and medium term moving average (50 DMA) is at 5740. Presently, the Nifty trading below20 , 50 and 2000 dma, which would be treated as bearish si signal coupled with oversold territory. Hence possibility of bounce back couldn’t be rule out at any stage though5640-5650 (200 dma) might be the key resistance zone.

FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT:-

Entire rally from the lows of 4786 to 6335 took 25 trading weeks without any substantial correction. If we applying Fibonacci theory and took retracement of this current rally, 50% and 80% retracement stood at 5555 and 5375 respectively. Any break down above this level could open the flood gates and possibility of losing another 100-200 pts should be on higher side. Moreover spot index created some gap on 14/02/211 of more than 30pts which has not been filled yet. Hence we are expecting this gap should be filled in the upcoming week however possibility of bounce back couldn’t be rule out at any stage.

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