Equity Research Weekly Market Outlook Report By Mansukh 14th May 2011

Weekly Market
SNAPSHOT
Volume & Volitility IndexIndian benchmarks have gone through every possible circumstance in the passing week, to start with it was consolidation which prolonged for three back to back sessions, thereafter followed a day of turmoil for the frontline indices only to sign off the week with an enthusiastic short covering rally. Markets seem to have formed a firm base around the psychological 5,550 and 18,500 levels and are showing little signs of budging from those levels despite the amount of volatility seen in the markets. Investors at large remained hesitant to build on positions ahead of a slew of announcements like IIP data, weekly inflation figures, export data and the outcome of assembly polls. The initial three sessions remained characterized by volatility as traders utilized every small rise to trim down their positions and book profits. Nevertheless, despite the late correction, the frontline indices managed to accumulate around a percent gains in the session as domestic investors cheered the ruling UPA's win against the Left Parties in West Bengal, Kerala and Assam which may strengthen the image of the beleaguered government.

WEEK GONE BY
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex remained flat gaining 12.47 points or 0.07% to 18,531.28 for the week ended May 13, 2011. The BSE Mid-cap index shed 19.62 points or 0.29% to 6844.16 and the Small-cap index declined 7.15 points or 0.09% to 8,335.43. On the sectoral front, Capital goods lost 81.26 points or 0.64% to 12688.62, Bankex shed 80.59 points or 0.64% to 12590.17, Oil Gas declined by 46.36 points or 0.47% to 9768.78, IT lost 17.17 points or 0.28% to 6039.60 and Consumer Durables trimming 4.46 points or 0.07% to 3210.24, were the top losers on the BSE while FMCG up by 160.72 points or 4.41% to 3803.26, Realty advancing 82.58 points to 3.94% , Health Care (HC) surging 85.20 points or 1.40% to 6149.40, TECk climbing 18.21 points or 0.50% to 3629.23 and Metal rising 41.02 points or 0.27% to 15404.23 were the main gainers on the sectoral space. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 6.70 points or 0.12% to 5544.75. On the NSE, Bank Nifty lost 1.11% to 11020.95, CNX IT tumbled 0.26% to 6609.55 while CNX mid- cap gained 0.87% to 8034.90 and CNX Nifty Junior surged by 1.74% to 11,185.40. India's food inflation numbers have managed to extend the downtrend for second straight week and have moderated sharply to 7.70% for the week ended April 30 from 8.53% seen in the previous week. India's industrial growth-IIP has surprisingly jumped to 7.3% in March from 3.6% in February; however the Industrial production had grown 15.5% a year ago.

WEEK AHEAD

With the prices of crude oil and FII movements being the constant decisive factors for the markets, the investors in the coming week would be watching the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data for the month of April for cues. As per the street expectation that India's wholesale price index likely rose 8.43 percent in April from a year earlier, slower than March's 8.98 percent increase due to base effect. Moreover, the postponed meeting of Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) for a decision on increasing the prices of diesel and domestic LPG will be taken only by May 17 or 18. Earlier EGoM was to meet on May 11, 2011 to consider hiking the diesel price by Rs 3-4 a litre and domestic LPG rates by Rs 20-25 a cylinder. Moreover trend line drawn adjoining two significant bottoms 5177 and 5232 , next level of support could be around 5430 level where possibility of bounce back couldn't be rule out. Hence clients are advised to remain cautious and use 'Buy on Dip' strategy on any substantial correction. On the flip side 5760-5770 (200 DMA) could be the key resistance zone where we might see some selling pressures. Any closing above this level with substantial volumes may boost the traders sentiment however 5945-5960 could be the next resistance zone. HAPPY TRADING......

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