Equity Research Weekly Market Outlook Report By Mansukh 26-March-2011

Weekly Market Outlook
SNAPSHOT
Despite starting the week with a lackadaisical performance and ending below the crucial support levels of 5,400 and 18,000, the benchmarks convalesced on Tuesday and carried forward the strong rally for rest of the of the week as they vivaciously conquered a lot of psychological levels on their way up. The consolidation in crude prices around $105 levels despite escalating turbulences in the Middle East nations was also seen as an opportunity by the local investors who resorted to broad based buying as tabling of the banking sector amendment bill and the Constitution Amendment Bill in parliament buttressed the chances of a rebound for the domestic indices. Moreover, bourses rallied over two percentage points on the last trading day of the week to finish the action-packed week on an exciting note. The spurt on the last trading day in benchmarks was not only due to sanguine leads from the global market but also on encouraging local cues like the overall growth  in the farm sector being pegged at 5.4% along with finance minister's avowal of 9% growth in the next fiscal in the upper house of Parliament stoking investor sentiments.  

Boisterous Indian stock markets witnessed an awe-inspiring week of trade as it seemed like the bullishness of the recent past has come to the fore. The frontline indices accumulated over a gargantuan five percentage points for the week taking the benchmarks to around two month high levels as optimistic global cues coupled with encouraging local developments fortified investors' mood. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex surged 936.83 points or 5.24% to 18,815.64 during the week ended March 25, 2011.The BSE Mid-cap index gained 3.25% to 6,721.56 and the Small-cap index advanced 2.61% to 8,001.63. All the sectoral indices on the BSE were in the positive terrain; Realty was up 184.64 points or 8.99% to 2,237.87, Bankex up by 741.78 points or 6.09% to 12926.07, IT up 344.65 points or 5.74% to 6,344.62, TECk up by 198.55 points or 5.62% to 3729.29 and Capital Goods (CG) up by 646.72 points or 5.23% to 12,373.27 were the major gainer. The S&P CNX Nifty zoomed 280.55 points or 5.22% to 5,654.25. On the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bank Nifty surged 6.27% to 11,387.30, CNX IT soared 5.77% to 6,930.65, CNX Nifty Junior advanced 3.08% to 10,943.10 and CNX mid- cap gained 3.05% to 7,824.15.

WEEK AHEAD
Amidst rising crude oil prices would continue to be threat for the equity markets in the coming week which is characterized by the volatility of  the expiry of F&O series for the month of March, Investor's in the coming week will be eagerly eyeing the core sector growth data, as measured
by the index of six key infrastructure industries, having a combined weight of 26.7% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and also the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI data for the month of March. Further, investor's will keep a close watch on telecom stocks as recommendations on the proposed new policies for telecom infrastructure and manufacturing will be coming in the next week. On the global front, investor's will be eyeing lots of major economic data from the US, starting with Existing Home Sales data on March 21,2011, New Home Sales data, Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims data and finally the Corporate Profits data.  Therefore any closing above 5670-5690 for at least two consecutive days may reap indices towards 5800-5850 where we might see some sort of consolidation. On the flip side 5355 still a major support for the March series. HAPPY TRADING…..

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Derivative Strategy On Future And Option Morning Report By Mansukh (11-March-2011)

Derivative Strategy
Nifty March 2011 futures closed at 5,508.40 at a premium of 14.00 over spot closing of 5,494.40, while Nifty April 2011 futures were at 5,528.40 at a premium of 34.00 points over spot closing. The near month March 2011 derivatives contract expire on Thursday, March 31, 2011. Nifty March futures saw an addition of 8.21% or 1.79 million (mn) units, taking the total outstanding open interest (OI) to 23.72 mn units.

From the most active underlying, Tata Steel March 2011 futures closed at a premium of 3.20 points at 599.75 compared with spot closing of 596.55. The number of contracts traded was 23,512.
SBI's March 2011 futures were at a premium of 13.95 points at 2602.85 compared with spot closing of 2588.90. The number of contracts traded was 20,436.

Tata Motors March 2011 futures were at a discount of 10.30 points at 1156.00 compared with spot closing of 1166.30. The number of contracts traded was 16,978. Reliance Capital March 2011 futures were at a premium of 3.90 points at 529.90 compared with spot closing of 526.00. The number of contracts traded was 17,920. Hindalco March 2011 futures were at a discount of 0.10 points at 209.50 compared with spot closing of 209.60. The number of contracts traded was 10,044.
Derivative Strategy On Futures And Options

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INDIAN RAILWAY BUDGET 2011-12: POPULIST OUTLINE

Railway Budget 2011
Ku. Mamata Banerjee presented a populist Rail Budget for FY11-
12E– Freight rates left unchanged, meets expectation. Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee has showered largesse on West Bengal not only with new trains and railway industrial projects - even educational institutions in the state could benefit. Mamata Banerjee, facing assembly elections in West Bengal in two months has not touched the freight charges. On the passenger front she has reduced the booking fee by 50%. Budget maintains status Quo on freight rates which leaves no impact on sectors like Cement, Steel, Power, Agriculture, and Fertiliser.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  1.     No hike in passenger fare and freight rates.
  2.     Highest ever Plan outlay of Rs. 57, 630 crore proposed for Railways. Rs. 9,583 crore provided for new lines.
  3.     1300 km new lines, 867 km doubling of lines and 1017 km gauge conversion targeted in 2011-12.
  4.     56 new Express Trains, 3 new Shatabdis and 9 Duronto trains to be introduced.
  5.     AC   Double   Decker   services   on   Jaipur-Delhi andAhmedabad-Mumbai routes.
  6.     A  new  portal  for  E-ticketing  to  be  launched  shortly. Booking charges will be cheaper with a charge of only Rs. 10 for AC classes and Rs.5 for others.
  7.     Feasibility study to raise speed of passenger trains to 160-200 kmph to be undertaken.
  8.     Anti Collision Devise (ACD) sanctioned to cover 8 zonal railways. GPS Based 'Fog Safe' Device to be deployed.
  9.     All state capitals in the North-East except Sikkim to be connected by Rail in next seven years.
  10.  A Bridge Factory in J & K and a state-of-art Institute for Tunnel and Bridge Engineering is proposed at Jammu.
  11.    700 MW gas-based power plant to be set up at Thakurli in Maharashtra. 18,000 Wagons to be procured during 2011-12.
  12.   Recruitment for 1.75 lakh vacancies of Group 'C' and 'D' including to fill up backlog of SC/ST initiated, 16,000 ex- servicemen to be inducted by March 2011.
  13.    Freight loading of 993 MT and passenger growth of 6.4 % estimated for 2011-12.
  14.   Gross Traffic Receipts at Rs.1,06,239 crore, exceeding one lakh crore mark for the first time estimated.
  15.   Ordinary Working Expenses assessed at Rs. 73,650 crore

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